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BioAtla, Inc. (BCAB)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 printed in line on revenue ($0.00) and ahead on EPS: Primary EPS was -$0.30 vs -$0.38 consensus, helped by materially lower R&D and G&A from program prioritization and restructuring measures . EPS/consensus values marked with * reflect S&P Global data (see Estimates Context).
  • Operating spend continued to trend down: R&D fell 49% YoY to $11.6M and G&A declined 22% YoY to $4.6M; net loss narrowed to $14.9M vs $26.9M a year ago .
  • Liquidity/runway: Cash was $49.0M at year-end; management executed a >30% workforce reduction (one-time cash cost ~$0.6M in Q2’25) and expects runway to key clinical readouts in 1H26 .
  • Clinical catalysts: BA3182 (EpCAM x CD3 TCE) Phase 1 dose-escalation readout mid-2025; Mecbotamab vedotin (CAB-AXL-ADC) mKRAS NSCLC data show exceptional OS (66% at 1-yr, 58% at 2-yrs) in Q2W regimen; Ozuriftamab vedotin (CAB-ROR2-ADC) shows differentiated activity in HPV+ SCCHN; evalstotug (CAB‑CTLA‑4) demonstrates high responses with lower imAEs in melanoma .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Clear OpEx discipline: R&D down 49% YoY and G&A down 22% YoY drove narrower loss and extended runway to 1H26; mgmt further streamlined opex with >30% headcount reduction and expects additional savings .
  • Strong clinical signals: Mec-V Q2W showed exceptional OS in mKRAS NSCLC (66% alive at 1-yr; 58% at 2-yrs; median OS not reached at 35 months) with only 7% discontinuation; supports pan‑mKRAS strategy .
  • Strategic partnering momentum: Ongoing and newly initiated discussions across Phase 2 assets; evalstotug “best-in-class” potential; HPV+ SCCHN OZ‑V data drawing interest; mgmt open to mid‑tier partners to align on opportunity size .

Quotes

  • “We remain on track for [BA3182] clinical data readout in mid-2025… we restructured the organization to further reduce costs, extend runway and prioritize new patient recruitment” .
  • “Exceptional overall survival…66% and 58% of patients with mKRAS NSCLC alive at 1 and 2 years” .
  • “We are encouraged by the differentiated findings…particularly in both HPV-negative and HPV-positive patients” (Oz‑V) .

What Went Wrong

  • No recurring revenue model yet; quarterly revenue was $0 (FY24 revenue was one-time collaboration in Q3), so valuation remains tied to clinical/regulatory milestones and financing risk .
  • Cash burn remains material despite progress: FY24 net cash used in operations was $72.0M; Q4 cash used was $7.5M; execution risk persists until partnerships or pivotal progress secure funding .
  • Workforce reduction highlights resource constraints and going‑concern risks flagged in forward-looking statements; mgmt must execute on partnering to support pivotal programs .

Financial Results

Income Statement and EPS (USD Millions, except EPS)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Collaboration & Other Revenue—$11.0 $0.0
R&D Expense$16.2 $16.4 $11.6
G&A Expense$5.8 $5.9 $4.6
Net Loss$(21.1) $(10.6) $(14.9)
Diluted EPS$(0.44) $(0.22) $(0.30)*

Notes: “—” = not disclosed as a separate revenue line; Q3 revenue reflects license revenue; Q4 had no revenue recognized . EPS values with * are from S&P Global.

Liquidity and Cash Flow

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Cash & Cash Equivalents (period-end)$61.7 $56.5 $49.0
Net Cash Used in Operating Activities (quarter)$19.0 $5.1 $7.5

Q4 vs Estimates and YoY

MetricQ4 2024 ActualQ4 2024 ConsensusSurpriseQ4 2023 Actual
Revenue ($M)$0.0 $0.0*In line$0.0
Primary EPS-$0.30*-$0.38*+$0.08n/a

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global. YoY operating spend also improved: R&D $11.6M vs $22.7M; G&A $4.6M vs $5.9M; net loss $14.9M vs $26.9M .

KPIs (Clinical/Operational)

  • Mec‑V (mKRAS NSCLC): 1‑yr OS 66%; 2‑yr OS 58%; median OS not reached at 35 months; 7% discontinuation; responses across 9 mKRAS variants .
  • Oz‑V (SCCHN, HPV+ subset): ORR 45% (conf+unconf), 27% confirmed; DCR 100%; 1 CR >16 months ongoing .
  • Evalstotug (melanoma, combo): ORR 64%, DCR 100% with relatively low grade 3 imAEs (18% at 5 mg/kg ≤18 weeks; no grade 4) .
  • BA3182 (EpCAM x CD3 TCE): MTD not yet reached; multiple tumor reductions; on track for mid‑2025 Phase 1 readout .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayAs of Q3’24 → Q4’24“Into early 2026” “Runway to key readouts in 1H 2026; further extended via restructuring” Maintained/Refined
R&D Expense Trend1H 2025“Expect to further reduce operating expense” “R&D expected to continue to decrease overall in 1H 2025” Maintained
Workforce2025n/aWorkforce reduction >30%; one-time cash cost ~$0.6M mostly in Q2’25 Lowered cost base
BA3182 readoutTiming“Around mid‑2025” “Mid‑2025” Maintained
Mec‑V (NSCLC)Milestone“Determining path for pivotal” “Positioning for future pivotal; Phase 2 readout 1H 2026” Added timeline
Oz‑V (SCCHN)Regulatory/PartneringFast Track; pivotal design feedback; near-term collaboration targeted Continuing responses; HPV+ signal; partnering discussions advancing Maintained momentum
Evalstotug (CTLA‑4)Pivotal set-upDose optimization and control arm feedback for Phase 3 in 2025 Partnering initiated; differentiated safety/efficacy profile reinforced Maintained/advanced BD

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2’24 and Q3’24)Current Period (Q4’24)Trend
Partnering“Meaningful discussions; near-term collaboration in 2024” Advanced and new discussions; targeting mid‑tier partners for Oz‑V; evalstotug partnering initiated Positive, refining partner focus
BA3182 (EpCAM x CD3)Phase 1 progressing; priming dose to mitigate CRS; mid‑2025 data guide Multiple tumor reductions; 100µg weekly cohort largely cleared DLT; mid‑2025 readout on track Advancing through dose
Mec‑V (AXL‑ADC)mKRAS signal; OS 12.6m vs 8.7m WT; responses across variants Exceptional OS at Q2W (66% 1‑yr; 58% 2‑yr; median OS NR at 35m); 7% discontinuation; potential pan‑mKRAS strategy Strengthening
Oz‑V (ROR2‑ADC)FDA Fast Track; pivotal design feedback; durable responses New HPV+ subgroup signal (45% ORR; 100% DCR); >16m ongoing CR; well‑tolerated Strengthening
Evalstotug (CTLA‑4)Low imAEs; early responses; planning Phase 3 in 2025 ORR 64%/DCR 100% in melanoma combo; 18% grade 3 imAEs at 5 mg/kg; partnering initiated Positive profile
Cash/RunwayThrough Q3’25 (Q2) → into early 2026 (Q3) 1H26 with restructuring; >30% workforce reduction to extend runway Extended/derisked ops

Management Commentary

  • “We remain on track for this clinical data readout in mid-2025… we restructured the organization to further reduce costs, extend runway and prioritize new patient recruitment” — Jay M. Short, CEO .
  • “Exceptional overall survival…66% and 58% of patients with mKRAS non-small cell lung cancer alive at 1 and 2 years…median OS not reached at 35 months” — Jay M. Short .
  • “We believe evalstotug has demonstrated a differentiated clinical profile…potential to be best‑in‑class… we have recently initiated partnering discussions” — Eric Sievers (and management), Q&A/remarks .
  • “We have both advanced discussions and newer discussions… we’re pretty encouraged with the discussions that are underway” — Jay M. Short on partnering .

Q&A Highlights

  • Partnering trajectory: Mgmt indicated active and expanding discussions across Phase 2 assets; HPV+ SCCHN data expected to widen interest; open to mid‑tier partners aligned with ~$1B+ 2L opportunity .
  • mKRAS/AXL biology: ~70%+ double‑positivity for AXL by IHC across KRAS mutants; G12C 100% by IHC; prior sotorasib patient responded; no prior pan‑KRAS inhibitor exposures treated .
  • BA3182 development: Dosing advancing; 100µg weekly cohort near completion of DLT; 300µg cohort expected; recommended Phase 2 dose zone emerging as exposures rise; mid‑2025 readout reiterated .
  • Portfolio focus: While EpCAM TCE is a priority given breadth and safety, mgmt may add some patients to AXL; partnering flexibility across ROR2/CTLA‑4 and potentially AXL .
  • Regulatory design: For Oz‑V, agency supportive of dose‑schedule evaluation within pivotal framework (Q2W vs 2Q3W) before finalizing Phase 3 schedule .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024: Revenue $0.0 vs $0.0 consensus (in line); Primary EPS -$0.30 vs -$0.38 consensus (beat by $0.08). FY 2024 EPS -$1.44 vs -$1.52 consensus (beat by $0.08). Values marked with * are from S&P Global.
  • Q3 2024: Revenue $11.0M vs $0.0 consensus, reflecting one‑time collaboration revenue; Primary EPS -$0.22 vs -$0.37 consensus. Values marked with * are from S&P Global and/or company-reported actuals .
  • Implication: Street likely raises near‑term EPS due to sustained OpEx discipline, but revenue forecasts remain milestone/BD‑driven with low recurring visibility.

Table – Consensus vs Actuals (S&P Global unless cited)

PeriodRevenue Estimate ($M)Revenue Actual ($M)EPS EstimateEPS Actual
Q4 20240.0*0.0 -0.38*-0.30*
Q3 20240.0*11.0 -0.37*-0.22
Q2 20240.0*—-0.46*-0.44
FY 202411.0*11.0 -1.52*-1.44*
FY 20230.0*—-2.76*-2.58*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term catalysts are clinical, not financial: BA3182 Phase 1 data mid‑2025; continued maturation of Mec‑V mKRAS OS dataset; Oz‑V HPV+ SCCHN signal development; evalstotug Phase 3 set‑up/BD progress .
  • Cost discipline is real: Significant YoY OpEx declines narrowed losses; workforce reduction (>30%) should extend runway to key 1H26 readouts, reducing financing urgency in the near term .
  • AXL/mKRAS story de‑risks target biology: Durable OS signals at Q2W and multi‑variant activity support a pan‑mKRAS strategy; watch for positioning into a pivotal pathway and any combo data .
  • Oz‑V could be a partnerable asset: Differentiated HPV+ performance and Fast Track status make 2L+ SCCHN a credible ~$1B opportunity; mid‑tier partner focus is pragmatic and may accelerate execution .
  • Evalstotug looks competitive: High ORR/DCR with lower severe imAEs suggests best‑in‑class potential; partnering could offset pivotal costs and broaden label strategy .
  • Trading setup: Stock likely reacts to BD milestones, conference data (ELCC/Mayo, ASCO), and BA3182 mid‑2025 readout; downside risks include trial delays, partnering slippage, and financing if timelines slip .

S&P Global disclaimer: Asterisked estimates and certain actuals above are values retrieved from S&P Global.